[BITE] The Big Bet Mindset: Building Bold, Lasting Change w/ Dr. Raj Shah, The Rockefeller Foundation

SCS (Intro):

Hey folks—hard to believe summer is just around the corner.

I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately: in a time when markets feel uncertain and progress often feels incremental at best, what does it really take to create lasting, meaningful change?

Now more than ever, we need to stay grounded in possibility—and be willing to make bold, system-shifting bets.

Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, through his work at the Gates Foundation, USAID, and now as President of The Rockefeller Foundation, reminds us that the biggest leaps forward rarely come from playing it safe. They come from thinking long-term, acting with urgency, and building unexpected alliances that unlock outsized impact.

As son of immigrants from Detroit, Michigan, I was so inspired by our conversation on what it means to jump first, even if that could mean overstepping authority, building unlikely alliances for the bigger goal, and inspiring sustainable change at scale. I cannot wait for you to dig in.

If you’re a business leader asking, “Where do we go from here?” — this conversation is for you.

Here are your key takeaways from our power-packed conversation:

Key Takeaway #1: The 3 key elements of big bets

Alright let's get started with my Cliff Notes here and we’re breaking down the framework. The #1 key takeaway from our conversation was about what it really takes to make big bets. Big bets that move the needle on some of the world’s toughest problems: Innovative solutions, unlikely partnerships, and a relentless focus on data—on measurement, results, and accountability.

So think of it as three legs of a stool. What stood out to me most was the idea of unlikely alliances; they’re often underestimated. Especially in our polarized reality, even the idea of coming together with an opposing party feels difficult. But therein lies the power in something deeply human: building trust, cultivating relationships, and showing up for the greater good. 

Especially in the world of philanthropy, where the challenges are complex and interconnected, going it alone or in silos doesn’t cut it. The real breakthroughs come when public and private sectors come together—not in silos, not just on paper, but in practice—with shared purpose and real collaboration.

Clip:

Raj Shah:

Big bets require three core ingredients, fresh, innovative solutions, unlikely partnerships and alliances, and a real focus on data results, measurement and tracking. And people often forget about the unlikely partners and alliances piece. So I'm really glad you asked that question.

The truth is, the chapter in the book where I write about one of these collaborations is called Make It Personal, because I think what I've really learned over time, when it all is said and done, the reality of what makes unlikely partnerships possible is the personal relationships and really getting to know people and really connecting with people so that you can be a good partner. I write about it from my time in government and an experience I had when we were trying to get bipartisan legislative support for basic idea that America should lead the world in fighting hunger and food insecurity. And without getting into all the details, I had made some missteps on Capitol Hill that got me into a very partisan space, a lot of critique by Republicans and conservative Republicans.

And as part of apologizing for that and learning about it, I spent a lot of time with some very, very conservative members of Congress and the House. And a lot of that was not fruitful, but some of it really led to these really deep personal relationships, friendships where we traveled together, we understood each other's values, we prayed together. I was invited to deliver the keynote address at something called the National Prayer Breakfast.

And ultimately, we passed the Global Food Security Act with strong bipartisan support. And it's been reauthorized twice since I left government because that support has persisted. I would just offer that sometimes in order to really build bridges and build alliances, you have to have these deep personal relationships and you have to invest in building them if you want to lead Big Bets.

Key Takeaway #2: It is realistic to be optimistic about grand-scale changes. 

So—if you caught last week’s episode with Jesse Draper, you know: when it comes to gender equity in venture, we’re still far from where we need to be. It’s a stark reminder that real progress—the kind that truly shifts systems—doesn’t happen overnight, and it definitely doesn’t happen on its own.

BUT change needs to be driven with energy and stamina. That’s why I keep coming back to this: optimism isn’t naive—it’s necessary. Whether we’re talking about gender equity, hunger, climate, or healthcare, tackling the world’s biggest challenges demands bold thinking, long-term conviction, and the courage to act at scale. It means believing transformation is possible—even when the path is hard, and the wins feel too few.

Raj shared a story from his time at the Gates Foundation that really stuck with me.

Clip:

Raj Shah:

Well, the first lesson in the book is called Ask a Simple Question.

And the reason is when back in that early day, Bill and Melinda had made a big bet. They had said there are too many children around the world dying of preventable diseases.

There are vaccines that should be available to save these child lives. But those vaccines were only available in wealthy countries.

And in less wealthy countries, the kids were not getting them. And they said, this feels wrong. We should solve this problem.

And not just solve it for one child or one village or one community with charitable giving, but actually look at what would it take to change the structure of the global vaccine industry so enough volume of vaccines were produced at a low enough price point, so everyone could receive them?

What would it take for 70 countries that house the 40, 45 million kids every year who were not getting vaccinated to invest in human resources, put in place safe vaccination programs, build out refrigeration and cold chain so that you could vaccinate every child? And Bill's simple question, he would pull us into a conference room and over and over ask, what does it cost to vaccinate a single child? And everybody would say, well, it's too complex to think of it that way.

You know, there's, it varies across country, it varies across community. And some places you have to hire people and some place you have to buy refrigerators. And he just kept insisting on getting an answer.

And we spent years running spreadsheets until we had the answer. The reason that answer was so important was it allowed us to say, OK, this multiplied by the 104 million kids born every year is the total cost of annually vaccinating a birth cohort. And that’s the target.

And so we might think we have a lot of resources at this well endowed foundation, but it's actually just a drop in the bucket. And we have to think systemically about solving, not just incrementally improving upon these problems. And that's what a big bet is.

It's solving big global challenges, not just making incremental changes.

Raj Shah:

In global philanthropic giving, the amount of giving that's actually given for international inequity and inequality issues is actually very, very, very, very small. And so I think that's what you're articulating. The reality is it's odd because you get the best bang for your buck actually on buying outcomes related to reducing inequity through these kinds of global development efforts.

And that was part of the thinking that led to these big bets when we were back at the Gates Foundation on immunizing children.

We thought that was the most cost-effective way to save the most lives and had done the math and the analysis to do it. I write in the book also about efforts I led under the Obama administration after the 2008 food crisis to expand access to agricultural support, agricultural science and technology, and food and hunger programs that helped lift 100 million people out of hunger and poverty over the course of time by targeting the use of agricultural productivity improvement to eliminate poverty.

A proven strategy, but one that's deeply under-invested in and highly cost-effective relative to options. So a big part of what I write about in the book is that these problems can be solved and I hope readers will become both more knowledgeable about how to solve these problems but also become advocates that say, look, let's not succumb to the pessimism and the negativity that's in our news and in our social media. It's realistic to be optimistic about addressing hunger at scale, about addressing climate change in 80 countries that still house energy poor populations, about fighting for health outcomes for the world's poorest families and communities.

We know we can be successful, but it takes a Big Bet mindset to embark on these efforts.

Key Takeaway #3: Keep taking the risks, keep reinventing.

Now this point is one I wrestle with a lot as a leader - when I was last in Harvard, David Rubenstein who I look up to posed this question to a classroom of global leaders: what will you do next?

When I look at Raj Shah’s career, I see a remarkable trajectory. He’s worked with Microsoft, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, led USAID, and now heads the Rockefeller Foundation. Each chapter builds on the last—each step even more impactful, more globally significant.

But it made me wonder: How do you keep going? How do you make sure your next chapter is even bigger and better than the one before?

Here’s what Raj shared –

Clip:

Raj Shah:

At the end of the day, perhaps two things can help listeners who want to think about that challenge.

The first is it's easy to get comfortable. You got to keep taking the risks you took in your 20s and 30s as you get a little older, so that you can give yourself a chance to earn those rewards. Now, when I say risk reward, I'm talking about in the context of social impact efforts.

You have to remain optimistic and confident about your ability to change the world at scale. And that can be harder to do when you get seasoned, when you have failed a number of times, when you see what's rewarded in society and what's not. It's easy to sort of lose that mindset.

And so I wrote this book really for people in all ages and all stages of their career to reinvigorate that Big Bet mindset, especially in the context of social media and the like. I'd say the second element of it, at least in my case, has been the power of institutions. Nothing I write about in the book is something I did as an individual.

I could participate in teams of people around the world doing really special things together because the Gates Foundation became a very special institution. USAID is a very important institution for dignity and hope and opportunity for our planet.

The Rockefeller Foundation is an institution that has helped billions of people over time experience more dignity and more opportunity.

Because we created the field of science-based public health, we helped move a billion people off the brink of hunger through a green revolution. Now we're embarking on our third chapter around renewable energy and reaching a billion people who live in poverty. And so I couldn't do any of that alone.

It's all about institutions. And maybe one part of the answer is your listeners can think about, are they in the right institution? What's the next institution they might be able to elevate and make super impactful?

Key Takeaway #4: Crossing boundaries IS part of the process 

Reaching big goals often means crossing boundaries and taking bold risks to make things work.

Whether you’re a founder or a funder; building a startup or driving social change –  success rarely comes from staying in your comfort zone and doing things the way it’s always been done. It’s about stepping into the unknown, making tough calls, and betting on possibilities that aren’t guaranteed.

But here’s the thing—risks only pay off when you pair them with persistence, optimism, confidence, and a bunch of systems. That’s the mindset that helps you push through setbacks, stay focused on the vision, and keep moving forward—even when the path isn’t clear.

Clip:

Raj Shah:

Well, you know, Sarah, so many of your listeners are entrepreneurs who are comfortable taking risk. And often in the social sector and in putting together these big public-private solutions, it's very, very hard to take risk. And nobody really wants to go first, but everybody is willing to follow after someone has demonstrated something could work.

And we sort of found ourselves in that position when we were back about 20 years ago, trying to figure out how to reshape the global vaccine industry to create enough supply to vaccinate every child on the planet. And we had done some work with a group of innovative financial thinkers on Wall Street, structured something called the International Finance Facility for Immunization, effectively the first social impact bond for global health. And we wanted a group of European countries to pile in and help us issue this new bond to reshape the global vaccine industry.

Huge ambition, well beyond our scale. No one in the world knew if this thing would work. And so one night I sort of overstepped my own authority at the time.

I was basically a young professional at the Gates Foundation.

And I suggested that the foundation could guarantee the bond issuance as a way of sort of encouraging others to say, yes, let's try this. In the back of my mind thinking if everybody did say yes and try it, we might not need the guarantee and everything would be okay.

So I made that commitment well overstepping my own authority.

Thankfully, it did bring others to the table. And President Chirac of France and Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK and then half a dozen other European governments.

And by the time years later the bond was issued, no guarantee was necessary. And it raised $6 billion. It allowed us to create different types of contracts for vaccines.

Twenty years later, 980 million kids have been vaccinated and more than 16 million child lives have been saved. And that's an extraordinary outcome for that and other initiatives that contributed to that. But it started by jumping first.

And I'm trying to encourage readers of the book to have the encouragement to take some additional risks, particularly in the social impact work.

Closing Remark

SCS:

So as we close out this conversation—during AANHPI Heritage Month, no less—I'm reminded of the power of firsts. 

The courage to take the first leap. The boldness to ask the first hard question. The grit to build the first bridge across unlikely partnerships.

Raj Shah’s story is a powerful reminder that every billion-dollar move starts with conviction, clarity, and the courage to believe in what’s possible.

For all the movers and shakers tuning in: your big bet might just be the one that shifts the system. Keep crossing boundaries. Keep asking bold questions. Keep moving.

Because when we deconstruct the billion-dollar move, we find something simple but profound at its core: A willingness to believe—and the grit to act.